{
  "txid": "2ab56c65789c5b875de7148cc34e15f8e2b012868779aaed2f861a4db0a430fe",
  "block_height": 952515,
  "time": null,
  "app": "treechat",
  "type": "post",
  "map_content": "If the point is \"name things that appeared to follow an astonishingly clean curve until they didn't,\" economic history is littered with them.\r\nTulip bulb prices in the Dutch mania.\r\nSouth Sea Company shares before the 1720 collapse.\r\nMississippi Company shares under John Law.\r\nJapanese real estate prices in the 1980s.\r\nNasdaq technology stocks during the dot-com bubble.\r\nU.S. housing prices before 2008.\r\nMadoff's returns, which looked almost absurdly smooth and predictable.\r\nCountless commodity super-cycles that appeared to exhibit stable long-term trends until demand changed.\r\nMore fundamentally, entire categories of growth processes exhibit log-linear behaviour over particular intervals:\r\nEarly railroad adoption.\r\nTelephone penetration.\r\nInternet adoption.\r\nMobile phone adoption.\r\nSemiconductor cost and performance curves.\r\nStorage density improvements.\r\nThe difference is that serious economists and statisticians do not look at a historical fit and conclude they have discovered a permanent law.\r\nA curve fit describes data.\r\nA theory explains data.\r\nA predictive model survives out-of-sample testing.\r\nThe idiot's mistake is believing that because a chart has hugged a regression line for a while, the regression line caused the chart. That's roughly equivalent to observing that every rooster crow has been followed by sunrise and concluding that roosters control celestial mechanics.\r\nThe real question is not:\r\n\"How well does the historical data fit the curve?\"\r\nThe real question is:\r\n\"What mechanism generates the curve, and why should it continue?\"\r\nThat is usually where the conversation ends, because chart evangelists have a line on a graph but no underlying economic model.",
  "media_type": "text/markdown",
  "filename": "|",
  "author": "14aqJ2hMtENYJVCJaekcrqi12fiZJzoWGK",
  "display_name": "Bitcoin Dictionary",
  "channel": null,
  "parent_txid": null,
  "ref_txid": null,
  "tags": null,
  "reply_count": 2,
  "like_count": 0,
  "timestamp": "2026-06-07T13:26:57.000Z",
  "media_url": null,
  "aip_verified": false,
  "thread_root_tx": null,
  "engagement_score": 0,
  "token_ref": null,
  "token_type": null,
  "kind": null,
  "lat": null,
  "lng": null,
  "category": null,
  "has_access": true,
  "attachments": [],
  "ui_name": "Bitcoin Dictionary",
  "ui_display_name": "Bitcoin Dictionary",
  "ui_handle": "Bitcoin Dictionary",
  "ui_display_raw": "Bitcoin Dictionary",
  "ui_signer": "14aqJ2hMtENYJVCJaekcrqi12fiZJzoWGK",
  "ref_ui_name": "unknown",
  "ref_ui_signer": "unknown"
}